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Polling data shows overestimation of risks (= bias) about the Coronavirus in developed countries, especially at the beginning of the pandemic. The cause of this bias can be found in fear messaging employed by the mass media as several analysis of media content showed. Official documents of the UK and German government indicate that reinforcement of bias was actually intended by government agencies; in line with recommendations by behavioral and social scientists in prestigious journals (Nature) to the effect of increasing conformity and mental rigidity in following government mandates by stoking fear, moral framing and \u201cpsychological inoculation\u201d (see the paper for detailed references).<\/p>\n
This raises the question: What are the effects of bias about infectious diseases in general?<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n
Our other contrubtions are the introduction of the concepts of rational choice and social welfare<\/strong> to mathematical epidemiology and a new proof for the utilitarian principle<\/strong>.<\/p>\n <\/i><\/b><\/p>\n <\/i><\/b><\/p>\n [\/et_pb_accordion_item][\/et_pb_accordion][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_row column_structure=”2_5,3_5″ _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”2_5″ _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/covid-ai.uni-koblenz.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/model.png” title_text=”model” _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_image][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=”3_5″ _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n Agent-<\/b>Based<\/b> Macro<\/b>-Model <\/b>with<\/b> Rational Choice <\/b>Behavior<\/b> and <\/b>Principled<\/b> Social<\/b> Welfare<\/b> Evaluation<\/b><\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_row column_structure=”1_3,1_3,1_3″ _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”1_3″ _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n Simulations<\/b> Confirm<\/b> that<\/b> Increasing<\/b> Fear <\/b>Improves<\/b> Important<\/b> Epidemiological<\/b> Outcomes <\/b><\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=”1_3″ _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/covid-ai.uni-koblenz.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/peak-2.png” title_text=”peak” _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_image][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=”1_3″ _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/covid-ai.uni-koblenz.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/incidence-2.png” title_text=”incidence” _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_image][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_row column_structure=”2_5,3_5″ _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”2_5″ _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/covid-ai.uni-koblenz.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/duration.png” title_text=”duration” _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_image][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=”3_5″ _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n However<\/b>, <\/b>the<\/b> Impact <\/b>of<\/b> Fear on <\/b>Wellfare<\/b> is<\/b> Very Mixed<\/b><\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/covid-ai.uni-koblenz.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/welfare.png” title_text=”welfare” _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_image][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_accordion _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_accordion_item title=”Conclusions” open=”on” _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n <\/p>\n [\/et_pb_accordion_item][\/et_pb_accordion][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_accordion _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_accordion_item title=”Detailed references can be found in:” open=”on” _builder_version=”4.24.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n Pestow, 2024, The Impact <\/a>of Cognitive Bias about Infectious Diseases<\/a> on Social Well-Being [\/et_pb_accordion_item][\/et_pb_accordion][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The Impact of Cognitive Bias about Infectious Diseases on Social Well-Being Polling data shows overestimation of risks (= bias) about the Coronavirus in developed countries, especially at the beginning of the pandemic. The cause of this bias can be found in fear messaging employed by the mass media as several analysis of media content showed. 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